Raghavan On Reducing Nuclear Risks In South Asia
October 23, 2012
General V.R. Raghavan, the founder of the Delhi Policy Group and the Centre for Security Analysis in Chennai, gave a talk in Washington on October 19, 2012, co-sponsored by Stimson, the Arms Control Association, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. A summary of his remarks follows:
There is a rich and varied output in strategic and security writings on nuclear South Asia. South Asia is the post-Cold War test bed on which nuclear deterrence, escalation dominance, nuclear doctrines, force structures, command and control systems, and crisis management principles are being examined afresh. Western experts are not the only ones to benefit from this churning of ideas: Indian and Pakistani policymakers are also coming to their own conclusions.
Nuclear South Asia has a list of positives to its credit. India and Pakistan have been through a number of serious disagreements and tensions since 1998. Despite grave provocations and serious domestic political pressures, both sides have demonstrated considerable crisis containment or management skills. Military responses have not escalated beyond the conventional domains, and have avoided risks of nuclear escalation. Additionally, there have been meaningful Track II engagements between India and Pakistan that have helped clear the air on misperceptions and misinterpretations. The governments of the two countries have used this to better understand the security dynamic which operates during the build-up to and during crisis.
Phrases like “dangerous deterrent” and “unstable peace” have been used to describe the South Asian scene. In the decade and half since their nuclear tests, India has published its nuclear doctrine and Pakistan has indicated its thresholds. Both sides have put into place legislation and systems to improve safety and security. They have put in place command and control systems at strategic and operational levels. There is restraint in the nuclear rhetoric.
“Arms build-up” and “arms race” are a constant refrain on South Asia. Capability accretion is a reality in South Asia. One observer of the South Asian nuclear scene interprets this accretion in nuclear capabilities as a vigorous attempt by both states to seek strategic and tactical stability. He goes on to say that in India and Pakistan, strategic and tactical stability are not mutually incompatible, and that it has aided efforts to preserve the status quo and led to a decline in tensions.
The reported development of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Pakistan can either be viewed through this prism of a search for stability, or as a destabilizing development. If “tactical nuclear weapons” are to be used during operations, the Indian position may well be that a nuke is a nuke and the use of even a tactical one is a strategic strike. The Indian decision makers may not attach importance to either the yield of the weapon used, or the territory on which it is detonated. The response could well be strategic on the lines indicated in the India doctrine. The search for strategic stability will continue to drive the development of a nuclear triad and other capabilities. What remains to be seen is the speed and scale on which the strategic apparatus will come about.
What risks can we expect in the circumstances that prevail in South Asia? Given the desire for stability demonstrated by both sides, what trigger can introduce instability and raise the risk quotient? The first is that of nuclear security and safety. The second risk relates to a situation in which one side, more likely the weaker one, can initiate a crisis with a view to involving the major powers in taking sides. Past events bear out the reality of such crisis intervention by major powers in South Asia. Whether this will be a recurrent reality remains to be seen.
South Asia’s leaders, not unlike US presidents in the Cold War and even today, cannot be oblivious to public opinion when it comes to nuclear weapons. The primacy of the political ingredient in nuclear risk reduction cannot be ignored in South Asia. It also offers the most promising area for new attempts in risk reduction. In the absence of the political element other measures will amount to no more than technical fixes.
Is there a ‘Black Swan’ in this sky which can ruin the best laid plans? What can surprise the two countries and international community? International terrorism and its extensive reach is the intangible danger which can upset the arrangements for stability India and Pakistan make, either individually or bilaterally. This is also an international or global security requirement. The Nuclear Security Summits during the Obama presidency have made a singular contribution on this. Such work will have to be sustained.
The future of nuclear risks in South Asia is not well served by the fear generated in the discourse on it. The sense of imminent Armageddon is never far from the American writings on nuclear South Asia. Such prognosis is not helpful to objective analysis. Where there are nuclear weapons there are risks. Even the most experienced states in this game cannot claim certainty or immunity in such matters. Fear, therefore, cannot be the basis for rational action.
About K4Kashmir
PROFILE OF Dr SHABIR CHOUDHRY
Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and holds a dual nationality.
Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’.
Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London.
Political Achievements
Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984.
• Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996.
• Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001.
• Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008.
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At present, he is:
• Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee;
• Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs;
Previously
• A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001.
• Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause.
• Have addressed dozens of seminars and conferences in the British Parliament, European Parliament and other important capitals of the world on issue of Kashmir, violence and terrorism.
• Addressed as a key note speaker in a Conference at New Delhi arranged by Jawahar Lal Nehru University.
• Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993.
• Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003.
• Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991.
• Addressed at Cambridge University as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000.
• In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was: “Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”.
• Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995.
• Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993.
• Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia.
• Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003.
• Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions.
• Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007.
• Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'.
• Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and
Publications
• Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen.
• Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983.
• Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990.
• Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?'
• Apart from that has twenty five books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle.
• Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it
• Different perspective on Kashmir
• JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir
• Kashmir Needs a Change of Heart
• If not self - determination then what?
• Emma Nicholson report- who has won?
• Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson)
• Why 22 October 1947 is important in Kashmiri history?
• New dimensions of the Kashmiri struggle.
The following books are published by a German company and available on www.amazon.co.uk
• New Round of the 'Great Game', ISBN 978-3-639-33084-7
• Liberation Struggle, Jihad or a Proxy War,
ISBN 978-3-639-33424-1
• Kashmir Dispute: New Dimensions and New Challenges
ISBN 978-3-639-33566-8
• Kashmir Dispute and Peace in South Asia
ISBN 978-3-639-33732-7
• Terrorism, Kashmir Dispute and Possible Solutions ISBN 978-3-639-34239-0
• Kashmir And The Partition of India, (my Mphil research)
ISBN 978-3-639-34801-9
• Kashmir – an Issue of a Nation not Dispute of a Land, (my PhD research) 978-3-639-35593-2
• Are Kashmiris part of the Kashmir Dispute? 978-3-639-37225-0
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A brief background
Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker.
In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984.
He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy.
Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia.
Dr Shabir Choudhry
Email:drshabirchoudhry@googlemail.com
Telephone: 0044 (0)7790942471
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