Kashmir survey was designed to achieve desired results

Posted by on August 12, 2012 in Articles by Dr Shabir Choudhry | Comments Off

Kashmir survey was designed to achieve desired results

Dr Shabir Choudhry   11 August 2010

Dr Robert Bradnock’s survey, ‘Kashmir– Paths to Peace’ made headlines when it was made public in May 2010 in a seminar held at Chatham House, a prestigious British Think Tank. The survey was commissioned by Dr Saif al Islam al Qadhafi and designed by Dr Bradnock and Ipsos Mori.

Before analysing this important survey, first of its kind, it is important to point out that no survey could be absolutely accurate; and different people could reach different conclusions from the same data. It is also true that, at times, people administering or designing the survey want to confirm certain ideas or beliefs; and the data is used to support or negate those beliefs.

In my opinion, this survey was also conducted with certain pre conceived ideas and to confirm and negate certain things; and suggest a certain course of action for theKashmirdispute. We people ofJammu and Kashmirmust be fully aware of this; and must not fall in the trap of those forces which want to divide our motherland, be it in name of trade, culture, ethnicity or religion.

  1. My first point against this survey is that it has given us a new map, a map which has taken away Gilgit Baltistan from us. Gilgit Baltistan was not included in the survey and it was not included in the map.
  1. Other areas which were not included in the survey were included in the map, and it was shown that these were not included in the survey. Why this was not done with Gilgit Baltistan?
  1. Does it mean the powers that be, have already decided that in future Gilgit Baltistan will not be included in any discussions which might take place to find a solution to the Kashmir dispute?
  1. The survey reveals that 44% of the people from the Pakistani side ofKashmirwanted independence, but this figure could have  surpassed 50% mark ifNeelamValleywas included in the survey, because this area has suffered enormously because of the militancy and infiltration. These people have seen the Pakistani rule, they have seen what militancy has to offer to them; and majority of them want independence.
  1. Perhaps those who designed and commissioned the survey didn’t want a clear verdict from the people of this region. It is because of this they chose to leave this area out of the survey that they could declare people ofKashmirare indecisive.
  1. The survey, once again confirms that overwhelming majority of people of the Valley are in favour of an independent Kashmir. The vote in favour of independence was as high as 95% in some districts.
  1. To bring this very high percentage of vote in favour of independence down to acceptable or desired level, important pro independence areas were deliberately left out of the survey; and all anti independence areas were included in the survey.
  1. Without any survey one can tell that areas ofJammu, Kathua, Udhampur, Rajouri, Poonch, Kargil and Leh are not pro independence areas; yet all these areas were included in the survey and other militancy hit and pro independence areas like Doda, Pulwama and Kupwara were left out of the survey.
  1. We know certain areas have proIndiamajority, but it is surprising, rather shocking that in places like Poonch, Rajouri, Udhampur and Kathua not a single person supported an independent Kashmir. Some of these areas have sizable Muslim minority; and I am personally in touch with many of them, and they fully support an independentKashmir. It is very likely that those who ‘administered’ the survey only approached non Muslims in the survey.
  1. This strategy helped the designers of the survey and those who commissioned it to get the desired results; and assert that people of Jammu and Kashmirare divided and have not given a clear verdict in favour of any one option.
  1. The survey wanted to establish that people opposed the status quo, but were overwhelmingly in favour of ‘Liberalised Line of Control’. What that means is no changes to boundaries by making ‘borders irrelevant’, as stated by Prime Minister of India, some officials ofPakistanincluding some Think Tanks and some influential leaders of the ‘International Community’.
  1. ‘Liberalised Line of Control’ will allow people and goods across the LOC freely without many restrictions; and the borders of the State ofJammu and Kashmirwill remain same – as they are now. This means on one side of the LOC, Indian supported administration and the Indian army; and on the other side of the LOC,Pakistansupported administration and thePakistanarmy.
  1. Some kind of technical cover will be provided to make Gilgit Baltistan ‘legally’ part ofPakistan. Of course Chinese will retain whatever area of the State they have, either conquered or ‘gifted’ to them, as was the case with Shaksam Valley which was gifted to China by Pakistan in 1963.
  1. I don’t know what method was used, but the option of ‘Liberalised Line of Control’ attained amazing support in the survey. From Kargil the survey showed 100% support for this option, Leh 81%; Srinagar 83%, Baramulla 81%, Anantnag 81%, Badgam 74%; Kathua 93%, Jammu 79%, Udhampur 66%, Rajouri 99% and Poonch 99%.
  1. In Pakistani Administered Kashmir the support for this option was as follows: Muzaffarabad 95%, Sudanhoti 97%, Bagh 81%, Bhimber 87%, Mirpur 87%, Poonch 97% and Kotli 98%.
  1. It looks the powers that be want to push the Kashmir dispute in favour of this option, because they don’t want to annoy India and Pakistan, as services and cooperation of both countries are required to advance certain agenda.
  1. It is also interesting to note that 77% of people of Indian side ofKashmirbelieve that ‘an end to all militant violence inKashmirwill help to end the conflict overKashmir’. It is also interesting that the highest support in favour of ‘an end to all militant violence’ came from the Valley, with Baramulla  showing 91% support, Badgam 92%, Srinagar 84% and Anantnag 98% respectively.
  1. Some areas of Pakistani Administered Kashmir also showed high support for this, for example, Bagh had 75% support and Mirpur had 72 %. From this side of the LOC, Kotli showed the least support for this, 27%.
  1. In Jammuprovince, Rajouri showed 0%, Poonch 3%,Jammu64%, Udhampur 97% and Kathua 98% support. Kargil showed 81% and 87 % support for this.
  1. Pakistanclaims that people ofJammu and Kashmirare eager to joinPakistan; and for this purpose they are giving sacrifices. We, Kashmiri nationalists, have always challenged this claim ofPakistan; and asserted that Pakistani governments, their agencies and their agents are deliberately misleading people. In this regard some Kashmiri people also helpPakistanto promote this view point; and in return get appropriate rewards for their services.
  1. We, people ofJammu and Kashmir State and people ofPakistanare also fed this propaganda that there is a widespread support for militancy and military solution among the people of Kashmir.
  1. This survey has exposed both of these myths. It is has confirmed that only 2% people of Jammu and Kashmir wanted to join Pakistan; and that made Pakistan ‘irrelevant’ in matters of Jammu and Kashmir despite being a ‘party’ to the dispute. It also showed that 77% of the people wanted militant violence to end.

This survey indicates how some interested parties want to resolve the Kashmir dispute. We people ofJammu and Kashmirhave to get our act together and oppose division of the State. We must think as Kashmiris and must promote interest of people of Jammu and KashmirState; and must not become tool of those who occupy us and exploit our resources.

Writer is Director Diplomatic Committee of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs.Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com

View: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com      www.k4kashmir.com

 

About K4Kashmir

PROFILE OF Dr SHABIR CHOUDHRY Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and holds a dual nationality. Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’. Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London. Political Achievements Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984. • Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996. • Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001. • Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008. . At present, he is: • Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee; • Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs; Previously • A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001. • Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause. • Have addressed dozens of seminars and conferences in the British Parliament, European Parliament and other important capitals of the world on issue of Kashmir, violence and terrorism. • Addressed as a key note speaker in a Conference at New Delhi arranged by Jawahar Lal Nehru University. • Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993. • Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003. • Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris. • Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991. • Addressed at Cambridge University as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990. • Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000. • In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was: “Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”. • Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000. • Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995. • Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993. • Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia. • Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003. • Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions. • Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007. • Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'. • Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and Publications • Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen. • Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983. • Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990. • Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?' • Apart from that has twenty five books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle. • Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it • Different perspective on Kashmir • JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir • Kashmir Needs a Change of Heart • If not self - determination then what? • Emma Nicholson report- who has won? • Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson) • Why 22 October 1947 is important in Kashmiri history? • New dimensions of the Kashmiri struggle. The following books are published by a German company and available on www.amazon.co.uk • New Round of the 'Great Game', ISBN 978-3-639-33084-7 • Liberation Struggle, Jihad or a Proxy War, ISBN 978-3-639-33424-1 • Kashmir Dispute: New Dimensions and New Challenges ISBN 978-3-639-33566-8 • Kashmir Dispute and Peace in South Asia ISBN 978-3-639-33732-7 • Terrorism, Kashmir Dispute and Possible Solutions ISBN 978-3-639-34239-0 • Kashmir And The Partition of India, (my Mphil research) ISBN 978-3-639-34801-9 • Kashmir – an Issue of a Nation not Dispute of a Land, (my PhD research) 978-3-639-35593-2 • Are Kashmiris part of the Kashmir Dispute? 978-3-639-37225-0 • A brief background Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker. In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984. He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy. Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia. Dr Shabir Choudhry Email:drshabirchoudhry@googlemail.com Telephone: 0044 (0)7790942471

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