India’s military grand strategy
By Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspalcrack
October 05, 2012
http://weeklypulse.org/details.aspx?contentID=2846&storylist=1
The Indian military planners have tried to maintain a very delicate balance between the offensive and defensive military constituents in their Military-Grand Strategy. In reality, however, the current India’s Military-Grand Strategy is more inclined towards the offensive posture.
During the last decade New Delhi has gradually transformed from defensive-defense to offensive-defense. The doctrinal shift, certainly, has serious repercussions for the regional strategic environment. Moreover, it could exacerbate the military vulnerability of Pakistan in near future. Therefore, the initiation of countermeasures seems inevitable.
Admittedly, India’s Nuclear Doctrine explicates a defensive arrangement and generates an impression that India is not willing to use its nuclear weapons for offensive purposes. Whereas, nuclear capable delivery systems stockpile or amassment and it’s conventional military muscle buildup is very much to pursue the political and diplomatic objectives in the region through the use of threat or actual use of conventional limited war-fighting tactics.
India’s Cold Start Doctrine, declassified on April 28, 2004, was envisaged to subdue Pakistan in a limited conventional war. It marked a break from the fundamentally defensive orientation that the Indian military has employed since independence in 1947. It visualized a tri-service doctrine, which necessitates restructuring of the Indian Army and reorganizing the Indian Army‘s offensive power away from the three large strike corps into eight smaller division-sized integrated battle groups (IBGs) that combine mechanized infantry, artillery and armor.
The eight battle groups would be prepared to launch multiple strikes into Pakistan along different axes in advance to destroy its defensive and offensive corps. The ground operations of the IBGs require integration with close air support from the Indian Air Force and naval aviation assets to provide highly mobile fire support. In addition, the holding corps would be redesignated as pivot corps and would be bolstered by additional armor and artillery. This would allow them to concurrently man defensive positions and undertake limited offensive operations as necessary.
India’s drive to develop a nuclear triad proceeds rapidly. Presently, it has been purchasing and developing several weapon systems to realize its goal of achieving offensive nuclear forces on land, at sea, and in the air. The $15 billion contract in January 2012 to purchase 126 Rafale fighter-bombers from France (France uses Rafale jets in a nuclear strike role); build submarines and new indigenous missile inventory underscores that India requires more weapon grade fissile material to arm these fighter aircraft, submarines launched and missiles with nuclear warheads.
New Delhi has seriously been engaged in increasing its fissile material i.e. weapon grade plutonium stockpiles for new delivery systems’ warheads. For instance, India plans to construct a second reactor near Visakhapatnam (first was Dhruva plutonium production reactor near Mumbai), on the east coast. In addition, New Delhi is building an unsafeguarded prototype fast-breeder reactor at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research near Kalpakkam, which will drastically increase India’s plutonium production capacity once it becomes operational.
The competing postures, and gap between theory and practice within the Indian Military-Grand Strategy, certainly, necessitate critical examination of India’s military buildup and its likely impact on Pakistan. The significance of this analysis becomes more imperative when one tries to hypothesis the likely outcome of the India’s Grand Strategy or National Strategy, whilst it is hypothetically analyzed keeping in mind the probability of limited war escalation into total war entailing nuclear strike exchanges between the nuclear capable strategic competitors.
India’s nuclear strike strategy is spelled out in India’s Nuclear Doctrine as ‘No-First-Use of nuclear weapons’ and ‘Massive Retaliation’ in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary. This ensures a space for the conventionally strong Indian military to carry out military adventurism against Pakistan to pursue its political and diplomatic objectives in the regional politics. In simple terms, it signaled that if Pakistan uses battlefield nuclear weapons to augment its conventional defensive capability during a limited war; it automatically invites India’s massive nuclear strikes.
Presently, it is not worthwhile for the Indian military planners to use their military advantage due to the conventional asymmetry between India and Pakistan to subdue Islamabad. In fact, they lack confidence in their existing conventional offensive military capabilities. Therefore, the New Delhi has been colossally investing in military hardware purchases from the international defense contractors. In addition, it has been endeavoring to acquire sophisticated space technology from both United States and Israel to develop Ballistic Missile Defense Shield.
The Ballistic Missile Defense systems presence in the Indian arsenal would be perilous for the prevalent deterrence stability between India and Pakistan entailing strategic stability in the region. The current South Asian strategic environment is a product of strategic equilibrium between India and Pakistan. The Ballistic Missile Defense systems disturb the prevalent balance of terror between India and Pakistan.
Although, the geographical contiguity between India and Pakistan limits or at least minimizes the operational capability of the missile defensive shield, yet this contiguous factor is insufficient to prevent the strategic miscalculation during the crisis. In simple words the missile defense system encourages crisis instability during the crisis by generating a destabilizing perception in the holders mind that the cost of crisis escalation would be bearable.
Theoretically, the deterrence stability eroded, when one party realizes that it is invulnerable to the retaliatory strikes of the adversary. The rational of the Indians ballistic missile program is very much to maximize India’s invulnerability to Pakistan’s ballistic missile strikes.
India‘s Grand Strategy entailing military buildup necessitates that Islamabad should be remained strategically vigilant and revamp its counter-strategy to sustain its defensive fence’s protection credible— albeit at a reasonable cost.
About K4Kashmir
PROFILE OF Dr SHABIR CHOUDHRY
Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and holds a dual nationality.
Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’.
Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London.
Political Achievements
Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984.
• Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996.
• Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001.
• Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008.
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At present, he is:
• Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee;
• Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs;
Previously
• A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001.
• Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause.
• Have addressed dozens of seminars and conferences in the British Parliament, European Parliament and other important capitals of the world on issue of Kashmir, violence and terrorism.
• Addressed as a key note speaker in a Conference at New Delhi arranged by Jawahar Lal Nehru University.
• Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993.
• Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003.
• Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991.
• Addressed at Cambridge University as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000.
• In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was: “Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”.
• Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995.
• Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993.
• Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia.
• Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003.
• Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions.
• Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007.
• Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'.
• Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and
Publications
• Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen.
• Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983.
• Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990.
• Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?'
• Apart from that has twenty five books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle.
• Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it
• Different perspective on Kashmir
• JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir
• Kashmir Needs a Change of Heart
• If not self - determination then what?
• Emma Nicholson report- who has won?
• Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson)
• Why 22 October 1947 is important in Kashmiri history?
• New dimensions of the Kashmiri struggle.
The following books are published by a German company and available on www.amazon.co.uk
• New Round of the 'Great Game', ISBN 978-3-639-33084-7
• Liberation Struggle, Jihad or a Proxy War,
ISBN 978-3-639-33424-1
• Kashmir Dispute: New Dimensions and New Challenges
ISBN 978-3-639-33566-8
• Kashmir Dispute and Peace in South Asia
ISBN 978-3-639-33732-7
• Terrorism, Kashmir Dispute and Possible Solutions ISBN 978-3-639-34239-0
• Kashmir And The Partition of India, (my Mphil research)
ISBN 978-3-639-34801-9
• Kashmir – an Issue of a Nation not Dispute of a Land, (my PhD research) 978-3-639-35593-2
• Are Kashmiris part of the Kashmir Dispute? 978-3-639-37225-0
•
A brief background
Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker.
In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984.
He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy.
Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia.
Dr Shabir Choudhry
Email:drshabirchoudhry@googlemail.com
Telephone: 0044 (0)7790942471
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