Haggling over Price with Pakistan
By Michael Krepon
This piece appeared in the June 15th edition of the Washington Post’s op-ed section.
Afghanistan’s future matters much more to Pakistan than to the United States. This elemental truth is forgotten in U.S. deliberations about how best to leverage Pakistan to achieve a political settlement in Afghanistan. Pakistani military and intelligence services have demonstrated that they are willing to risk ties with Washington to achieve a friendly government on their western border — a government that most Afghans and Washington would oppose. This is the central roadblock to U.S.-Pakistani relations and to a stable Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s leaders will continue to seek U.S. assistance even as they tirelessly pursue a government in Kabul that, after most U.S. troops withdraw in 2014, will be friendlier to them than to India. If the Pakistanis fail to ensure this negotiated outcome, they will employ allies to upend an Afghan government that they deem unfriendly.
Pakistani resolve is rooted in the assumption that, if India gains a strong foothold in Afghanistan, then Pakistan’s largest and most resource-rich province, Baluchistan, would be ripe for an India-supported insurgency. Pakistan’s military knows how this game is played — it played it in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir for more than a decade after Soviet troops left Afghanistan in 1989. Baluchistan is as disaffected today as the Kashmir Valley was then.
Pakistani distrust is heightened by events of four decades ago: India severed East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) from West Pakistan in their 1971 war. Pakistani leaders will not abide another territorial loss or an extended, foreign-backed insurgency, not when they are feeling so vulnerable. Pakistan has suffered the second-highest number of mass-casualty attacks — behind only Iraq — over the past five years. Pakistan’s military and intelligence services firmly believe that sooner or later, New Delhi will be unable to resist the temptation to dismember their country again. In fact, Pakistan’s dissolution would jeopardize Indian growth and security. And Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities have frozen a territorial status quo, which serves Indian interests. The prospect of a clash would be raised only if spectacular acts of terrorism originate from Pakistan.
Since Sept. 11, 2001, the United States and Pakistan have maintained a strained, transactional partnership. When faced with the George W. Bush administration’s ultimatum — Are you with us or against us? — Gen. Pervez Musharraf, then Pakistan’s chief executive, agreed to a limited U.S. presence at air bases, restricted use of Pakistani airspace and a logistical supply corridor for U.S. troops. Pakistani agents were instrumental in capturing al-Qaeda leaders, including Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheik Mohammed in March 2003. Pakistan was allocated U.S. military and economic assistance, although far less than its bill for services rendered.
Today, it is fashionable in Pakistan to blame Musharraf for giving away the store to the Americans. But refusing to cooperate would have ensured a much closer partnership between Washington and New Delhi and an embarrassing disregard for Pakistani sovereignty by U.S. forces. Ironically, Pakistani efforts to secure a friendly government in Afghanistan have produced the scenario Musharraf sought to avoid.
What’s more, Musharraf’s promises to the Bush administration were highly qualified, even at the outset. Pakistani military and intelligence services, based in Rawalpindi, provided havens for Afghan Taliban leaders and for proxies operating across the poorly demarcated border. The longer Pakistanis protected those who would presumably serve their interests in a future Afghan government, the more drone strikes Washington authorized on their havens. These strikes will ultimately fail to influence the outcome of an Afghan settlement — but they have already succeeded in making the United States more hated in Pakistan than India.
Tensions were inflamed by the May 2011 raid that killed Osama bin Laden and the NATO attack on a Pakistani border post that killed 24 Pakistani troops in November. Now the United States and Pakistan are again haggling — over the price of hauling freight and the wording of an apology for the November incident. This time, however, more Pakistanis and Americans are reaching the same conclusion: that it is not worth the effort, money or subterfuge required to patch up relations.
While Pakistan’s policies have remained consistent, U.S. policies are becoming more incoherent. President Obama invited President Asif Ali Zardari to the recent NATO summit in Chicago, then declined to meet privately with him before publicly declaring, “We think that Pakistan has to be part of the solution in Afghanistan.” U.S. policy seeks a mutually agreeable political settlement in Afghanistan, but there is no sense haggling over price if the government that Pakistanis want to see in Kabul is unacceptable to most Afghans and the other external stakeholders of Afghanistan.
Pakistan has a poor track record of controlling its proxies in Afghanistan, but its proxies are considered better than the alternatives. Pakistani military and intelligence services are holding a losing hand that they cannot lay down, while Washington’s cards grow weaker with time.
About K4Kashmir
PROFILE OF Dr SHABIR CHOUDHRY
Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and holds a dual nationality.
Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’.
Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London.
Political Achievements
Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984.
• Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996.
• Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001.
• Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008.
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At present, he is:
• Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee;
• Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs;
Previously
• A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001.
• Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause.
• Have addressed dozens of seminars and conferences in the British Parliament, European Parliament and other important capitals of the world on issue of Kashmir, violence and terrorism.
• Addressed as a key note speaker in a Conference at New Delhi arranged by Jawahar Lal Nehru University.
• Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993.
• Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003.
• Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991.
• Addressed at Cambridge University as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000.
• In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was: “Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”.
• Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000.
• Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995.
• Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993.
• Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia.
• Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003.
• Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions.
• Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007.
• Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'.
• Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and
Publications
• Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen.
• Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983.
• Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990.
• Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?'
• Apart from that has twenty five books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle.
• Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it
• Different perspective on Kashmir
• JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir
• Kashmir Needs a Change of Heart
• If not self - determination then what?
• Emma Nicholson report- who has won?
• Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson)
• Why 22 October 1947 is important in Kashmiri history?
• New dimensions of the Kashmiri struggle.
The following books are published by a German company and available on www.amazon.co.uk
• New Round of the 'Great Game', ISBN 978-3-639-33084-7
• Liberation Struggle, Jihad or a Proxy War,
ISBN 978-3-639-33424-1
• Kashmir Dispute: New Dimensions and New Challenges
ISBN 978-3-639-33566-8
• Kashmir Dispute and Peace in South Asia
ISBN 978-3-639-33732-7
• Terrorism, Kashmir Dispute and Possible Solutions ISBN 978-3-639-34239-0
• Kashmir And The Partition of India, (my Mphil research)
ISBN 978-3-639-34801-9
• Kashmir – an Issue of a Nation not Dispute of a Land, (my PhD research) 978-3-639-35593-2
• Are Kashmiris part of the Kashmir Dispute? 978-3-639-37225-0
•
A brief background
Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shamali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker.
In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984.
He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy.
Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia.
Dr Shabir Choudhry
Email:drshabirchoudhry@googlemail.com
Telephone: 0044 (0)7790942471
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